← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 50% | 44% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 22% | 26% | 4.40 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Tiago Almeida · Moreirense FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Modou Sougou · Moreirense FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Cauê · Moreirense FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Afonso Taira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alex · Moreirense FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pedro Rebocho · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Pedro Rebocho · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 84.00 | 1693.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.87 |
| elo | 1446.61 | 1500.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.76 | -8.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.48 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.90 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |