← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 34% | 36% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.93 | fair |
| Boavista win | 32% | 30% | 3.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ivan Bulos · Boavista |
| 77' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carlos Santos · Boavista |
| 83' | 🟨 | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 89' | 🟨 | Vagner · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟥 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 354.00 | 1601.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.17 |
| elo | 1442.44 | 1510.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.12 | 13.24 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| league points | 25.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 59.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| skill v1 | -2.63 | -2.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |