← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.96 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 24% | 23% | 3.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Nelsinho · FC Arouca |
| 8' | ⚽ | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Davidson · Chaves |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 80' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nuno Valente · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sema Velázquez · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 232.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.88 |
| elo | 1531.79 | 1532.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.13 | -0.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.29 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |