← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 89% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.02 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 4% | 3% | 25.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Kaká · CD Tondela |
| 22' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · FC Porto |
| 25' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 30' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 42' | 🟨 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 45' | 🟥 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 54' | ⚽ | Rúben Neves · FC Porto |
| 63' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 444.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.20 |
| elo | 1846.49 | 1422.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.85 | 4.20 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 50.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 0.67 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 22.96 | — |
| state index | 1.77 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |