← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 46% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.21 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 23% | 24% | 4.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Gevorg Ghazaryan · Maritimo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Radosav Petrović · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Paciência · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lionn · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1688.00 | 715.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 1.42 |
| elo | 1549.23 | 1542.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.35 | 41.10 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 27.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.55 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |