← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 41% | 43% | 2.39 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 30% | 26% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Jota · CD Nacional |
| 26' | ⚽ | Fernando Aristeguieta · CD Nacional |
| 53' | 🟨 | Filipe Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 76' | ⚽ | Juanto Ortuño · Belenenses |
| 77' | 🟨 | César Martins · CD Nacional |
| 79' | 🟨 | João Diogo · Belenenses |
| 80' | 🟨 | Vítor Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 42.00 | 439.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.77 |
| elo | 1450.23 | 1500.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.41 | -3.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |