← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 37% | 37% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.98 | fair |
| Boavista win | 30% | 32% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Nikola Stojiljković · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 38' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1595.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.31 |
| elo | 1508.66 | 1625.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.26 | -28.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.85 |
| skill v1 | -2.59 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |