← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 40% | 44% | 2.44 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
| Feirense win | 29% | 25% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jailson · CD Tondela |
| 46' | 🟨 | Sergio Barge · Feirense |
| 54' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rafael Amorim · CD Tondela |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟥 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 438.00 | 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.59 |
| elo | 1434.42 | 1430.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.08 | 29.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.80 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| league points | 14.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| skill v1 | -1.91 | -2.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |