← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 38% | 38% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +4% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 29% | 27% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Minhoca · Pacos Ferreira |
| 10' | ⚽ | Licá · GD Estoril Praia |
| 30' | ⚽ | Barnes Osei · Pacos Ferreira |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Pedro Monteiro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 80' | 🟨 | Diogo Amado · GD Estoril Praia |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gustavo Tocantins · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1686.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.16 |
| elo | 1491.81 | 1500.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.01 | -11.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.20 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |