← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 23% | 29% | 4.21 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 16' | ⚽ | Fransérgio · Maritimo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Andre Micael · Moreirense FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Éber Bessa · Maritimo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Diego Galo · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 708.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.77 |
| elo | 1535.92 | 1455.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.43 | 21.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 28.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.95 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |