← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 36% | 41% | 2.75 | value: +12% |
| Feirense win | 35% | 29% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Feirense |
| 74' | ⚽ | Anastasios Karamanos · Feirense |
| 75' | 🟨 | Anastasios Karamanos · Feirense |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kizito · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vaná · Feirense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Paciência · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 342.00 | 1681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.43 |
| elo | 1418.27 | 1561.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.56 | -8.40 |
| eye test v1 | -1.45 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 19.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| skill v1 | -1.92 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |