← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 85% | 82% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 9.80 | value: +11% |
| CD Nacional win | 5% | 6% | 21.40 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 34' | 🟨 | Washington · CD Nacional |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 43' | 🟨 | Dejan Mezga · CD Nacional |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tiago Rodrigues · CD Nacional |
| 56' | 🟨 | Zequinha · CD Nacional |
| 59' | 🟨 | Éderson · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
| 81' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Mitroglou · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 615.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1916.10 | 1451.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.99 | -31.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.58 |
| league points | 45.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.37 | 0.68 |
| skill v1 | 2.25 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.05 | — |
| state index | 1.52 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |