← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 50% | 49% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 21% | 22% | 4.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Murilo Freitas · CD Tondela |
| 24' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 25' | 🟨 | Rafael Amorim · CD Tondela |
| 27' | 🟨 | Heliardo · CD Tondela |
| 37' | 🟨 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 44' | 🟨 | Fábio Nunes · Belenenses |
| 69' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Belenenses |
| 70' | 🟨 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 70' | 🟥 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kaká · CD Tondela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 432.00 | 432.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.15 |
| elo | 1503.65 | 1430.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.88 | -10.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 46.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.68 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | -1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |