← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Thu, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Feirense win | 22% | 23% | 4.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Tiago Almeida · Moreirense FC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Roberto · Moreirense FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 43' | 🟨 | Andre Micael · Moreirense FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ousmane Drame · Moreirense FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 55' | 🟨 | Fernando Alexandre · Moreirense FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Fabinho · Feirense |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 76' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 85' | 🟥 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 68.00 | 338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 3.06 |
| elo | 1458.52 | 1415.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.45 | 24.18 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | -1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | -1.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |