← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Borlido Matos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 37% | 35% | 2.65 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 32% | 33% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 22' | ⚽ | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 45' | ⚽ | Heliardo · CD Tondela |
| 49' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 71' | 🟨 | Heliardo · CD Tondela |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ruca · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 424.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.12 |
| elo | 1412.39 | 1552.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.87 | 23.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.84 |
| league points | 10.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -1.81 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.20 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |