← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Mendes, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 43% | 43% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.11 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 25% | 26% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Mateus · FC Arouca |
| 48' | 🟨 | Washington · CD Nacional |
| 53' | 🟨 | Adilson Goiano · FC Arouca |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jorginho · FC Arouca |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rui Sacramento · FC Arouca |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nuno Coelho · FC Arouca |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jubal · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rui Sacramento · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rui Sacramento · FC Arouca |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Salvador Agra · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 27.00 | 577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.28 |
| elo | 1451.38 | 1528.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.67 | 11.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.28 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |