← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 67% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 20% | 6.95 | value: +37% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 7% | 13% | 14.00 | value: +84% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Diogo Amado · GD Estoril Praia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Oumar Diakhite · GD Estoril Praia |
| 51' | 🟨 | André Claro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 52' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 56' | 🟨 | Gustavo Tocantins · GD Estoril Praia |
| 76' | 🟨 | André André · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 | José Moreira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rui Pedro · FC Porto |
| 89' | 🟨 | Oumar Diakhite · GD Estoril Praia |
| 89' | 🟥 | Oumar Diakhite · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1672.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.97 |
| elo | 1489.90 | 1827.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.78 | 4.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.28 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.96 |
| state index | -0.98 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |