← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.06 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Juanto Ortuño · Belenenses |
| 29' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Boavista |
| 56' | ⚽ | João Diogo · Belenenses |
| 57' | 🟨 | Abel Camará · Belenenses |
| 63' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Belenenses |
| 69' | 🟨 | João Diogo · Belenenses |
| 80' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristiano Pereira · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.63 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1579.00 | 423.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.91 |
| elo | 1518.66 | 1491.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.26 | -24.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.64 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| skill v1 | -2.08 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |