← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 43% | 40% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.13 | value: +9% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 26% | 26% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Feirense |
| 36' | 🟨 | João Afonso · GD Estoril Praia |
| 56' | 🟨 | Luís Aurélio · Feirense |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Afonso Taira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 327.00 | 1666.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.11 |
| elo | 1404.34 | 1500.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.01 | -47.73 |
| eye test v1 | -1.50 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.79 |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |