← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 86% | 80% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 15% | 9.89 | value: +51% |
| CD Tondela win | 5% | 4% | 21.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 62' | 🟨 | Pica · CD Tondela |
| 76' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 84' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pica · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pica · CD Tondela |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 601.00 | 418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.58 |
| elo | 1932.95 | 1413.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.78 | -35.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.62 |
| league points | 42.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 0.59 |
| skill v1 | 2.30 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.17 | — |
| state index | 1.74 | -1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |