← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 39% | 46% | 2.47 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Boavista win | 28% | 25% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Tomané · FC Arouca |
| 11' | ⚽ | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 62' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 85' | 🟨 | — · Boavista |
| 89' | 🟨 | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Santos · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 570.00 | 1573.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.61 |
| elo | 1540.71 | 1506.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.04 | 26.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 61.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.24 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |