← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 37% | 43% | 2.61 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 2.94 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Roberto · Moreirense FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Pedro Monteiro · Pacos Ferreira |
| 55' | ⚽ | Daniel Podence · Moreirense FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Barnes Osei · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andre Micael · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.78 |
| elo | 1505.28 | 1438.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.33 | -19.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |