← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 67% | 61% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.46 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 11% | 16% | 8.85 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Marcelo Goiano · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 32' | 🟨 | Rafael Amorim · CD Tondela |
| 49' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 82' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 46.00 | 412.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.58 |
| elo | 1649.91 | 1418.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.54 | -40.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | 0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| league points | 33.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 0.63 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.77 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |