← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 82% | 87% | 1.19 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 7.60 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 5% | 4% | 18.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · Moreirense FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Óliver Torres · FC Porto |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ousmane Drame · Moreirense FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 42' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Francisco Geraldes · Moreirense FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 228.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.69 |
| elo | 1820.63 | 1440.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.32 | -2.03 |
| eye test v1 | 1.74 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| league points | 35.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 0.88 |
| skill v1 | 1.89 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 22.96 | — |
| state index | 1.45 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |