← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 42% | 42% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 28% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Maritimo |
| 8' | ⚽ | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 25' | ⚽ | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 30' | 🟨 | Xavier · Maritimo |
| 51' | 🟨 | Francisco Afonso · Pacos Ferreira |
| 67' | 🟨 | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Dyego Sousa · Maritimo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alex Soares · Maritimo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean Cleber · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Defendi · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 686.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.17 |
| elo | 1513.25 | 1517.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.84 | -7.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.06 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |