← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Borlido Matos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 35% | 36% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Gil Dias · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Heldon · Rio Ave FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 411.00 | 1659.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.26 |
| elo | 1493.58 | 1564.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.91 | 27.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |