← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 80% | 89% | 1.22 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 14% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
| Boavista win | 6% | 3% | 15.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 20' | ⚽ | Lucas Tagliapietra · Boavista |
| 25' | ⚽ | Andre Schembri · Boavista |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luisão · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 41' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Mitroglou · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 67' | ⚽ (og) | Fábio Espinho · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 68' | 🟨 | Lucas Tagliapietra · Boavista |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kamran Ağayev · Boavista |
| 77' | 🟨 | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 89' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 593.00 | 1566.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.30 |
| elo | 1941.91 | 1497.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.43 | 10.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.78 |
| league points | 41.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 1.25 |
| skill v1 | 1.81 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.82 | — |
| state index | 1.82 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |