← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 50% | 54% | 1.94 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 21% | 17% | 4.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 80' | ⚽ | Adilson Goiano · FC Arouca |
| 87' | ⚽ | João Basso · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kuca · FC Arouca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kuca · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 562.00 | 1657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.31 |
| elo | 1533.10 | 1508.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.17 | -43.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| league points | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |