← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Jan 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 45% | 39% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.26 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 25% | 30% | 3.84 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Tiago Almeida · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Rebocho · Moreirense FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Luís Silva · Belenenses |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fernando Alexandre · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Oriol Rosell · Belenenses |
| 84' | ⚽ | David Ramirez · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 44.00 | 405.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.53 |
| elo | 1430.46 | 1503.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.77 | 5.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| league points | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.13 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |