← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 36% | 30% | 2.69 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 32% | 39% | 3.04 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 59' | 🟨 | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jorginho · FC Arouca |
| 66' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 80' | ⚽ | Pité · CD Tondela |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 82' | 🟨 | Murilo Freitas · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pité · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Bracali · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 404.00 | 557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.75 |
| elo | 1427.34 | 1524.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.88 | 12.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.13 |
| skill v1 | -1.45 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |