← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 52% | 52% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Chaves win | 19% | 19% | 5.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Rafael Lopes · Chaves |
| 80' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Perdigão · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1652.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 3.46 |
| elo | 1587.21 | 1541.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.27 | 15.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.82 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.47 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 27.13 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |