← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 64% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.26 | value: +17% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 10% | 14% | 9.80 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · FC Porto |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ricardo Valente · Pacos Ferreira |
| 80' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 88' | 🟨 | Barnes Osei · Pacos Ferreira |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Leal · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Silva · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 37.00 | 220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 1.94 |
| elo | 1511.65 | 1826.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.66 | 6.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| league points | 16.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.27 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.96 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |