← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 46% | 50% | 2.12 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.57 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 27% | 25% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Djavan · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 30' | 🟨 | Baiano · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 39' | 🟨 | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
| 60' | 🟨 | Crislan · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 66' | 🟨 | Willyan · CD Nacional |
| 73' | 🟨 | Xeka · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 75' | 🟨 | Witi · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nuno Campos · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 2.10 |
| elo | 1465.64 | 1653.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.58 | 6.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 11.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 2.13 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |