← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 34% | 30% | 2.84 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 33% | 39% | 2.94 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 57' | 🟨 | Erdem Şen · Maritimo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Maurício Antônio · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1651.00 | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.93 |
| elo | 1520.82 | 1500.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.07 | 19.36 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |