← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Thu, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 50% | 47% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.43 | fair |
| Boavista win | 22% | 24% | 4.48 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Emin Makhmudov · Boavista |
| 32' | ⚽ | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 38' | 🟨 | Emin Makhmudov · Boavista |
| 56' | 🟨 | Vítor Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kamran Ağayev · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1543.00 | 1543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.25 |
| elo | 1483.72 | 1471.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.58 | -4.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |