← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Thu, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Capela
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 35% | 39% | 2.81 | value: +9% |
| Feirense win | 34% | 29% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabinho · Feirense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 46' | 🟨 | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pedro Monteiro · Pacos Ferreira |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Higor Platiny · Feirense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 296.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.06 |
| elo | 1382.71 | 1530.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.28 | -6.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| league points | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -1.76 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |