← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Thu, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 49% | 47% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.34 | value: +4% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 21% | 22% | 4.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 24' | 🟨 | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rafael Assis · Chaves |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mattheus · GD Estoril Praia |
| 68' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 174.00 | 1635.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 2.60 |
| elo | 1525.91 | 1529.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.40 | -2.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| league points | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.07 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.54 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |