← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 72% | 75% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.30 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 10% | 7% | 10.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Mitroglou · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 42' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 68' | 🟨 | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 569.00 | 1634.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.78 |
| elo | 1934.10 | 1569.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.74 | 28.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.77 |
| league points | 35.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.64 |
| skill v1 | 2.04 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.93 | — |
| state index | 1.60 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |