← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 53% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
| Feirense win | 19% | 18% | 5.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Maurício Antônio · Maritimo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Donald Djousse · Maritimo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 40' | ⚽ | Maurício Antônio · Maritimo |
| 43' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 47' | 🟨 | Higor Platiny · Feirense |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 64' | 🟥 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gevorg Ghazaryan · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Soares · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 659.00 | 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.09 |
| elo | 1492.49 | 1391.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.35 | -28.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.46 |
| league points | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.85 |
| skill v1 | -1.93 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.11 | -1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.57 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |