← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 42% | 38% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.21 | fair |
| Boavista win | 27% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 38' | 🟨 | Fernando Ferreira · CD Tondela |
| 45' | ⚽ | Vitaliy Lystsov · CD Tondela |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tengarrinha · Boavista |
| 77' | 🟨 | Erivelto Silva · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 83' | 🟨 | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 88' | ⚽ | Anderson Carvalho · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 383.00 | 1539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.30 |
| elo | 1442.26 | 1470.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.75 | -5.48 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |