← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 61% | 54% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.40 | value: +21% |
| CD Nacional win | 17% | 18% | 5.70 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
| 43' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Ali Ghazal · Rio Ave FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Filip Krovinović · Rio Ave FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · CD Nacional |
| 72' | ⚽ | Willyan · CD Nacional |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nelson Bonilla · CD Nacional |
| 84' | 🟨 | Willyan · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1631.00 | 1539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1563.65 | 1490.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.86 | -17.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.85 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |