← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 45% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.13 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 24% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jorginho · FC Arouca |
| 9' | 🟨 | Ousmane Drame · Moreirense FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · FC Arouca |
| 29' | ⚽ | Mateus · FC Arouca |
| 47' | 🟨 | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 47' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jorginho · FC Arouca |
| 68' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jorginho · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sema Velázquez · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 21.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.70 |
| elo | 1451.07 | 1516.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.08 | 8.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |