← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 77% | 75% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.10 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 7% | 11% | 13.07 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Afonso Taira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 49' | 🟨 | João Afonso · GD Estoril Praia |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1630.00 | 565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.60 |
| elo | 1531.68 | 1931.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.34 | -9.93 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | 1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| league points | 15.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.46 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 2.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.95 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |