← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 39% | 38% | 2.49 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.03 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 50' | ⚽ | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 85' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Belenenses |
| 86' | 🟨 | João Diogo · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 15.00 | 381.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| elo | 1522.25 | 1515.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.55 | 22.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.81 |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |