← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Thu, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 84% | 86% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.40 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 5% | 5% | 21.50 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Xavier · Maritimo |
| 20' | 🟨 | Éber Bessa · Maritimo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 59' | 🟨 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 61' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Gevorg Ghazaryan · Maritimo |
| 67' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 85' | ⚽ | Donald Djousse · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erdem Şen · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 197.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.94 | 1.83 |
| elo | 1822.68 | 1494.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.59 | 18.88 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| league points | 28.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.31 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | -1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 22.96 | — |
| state index | 1.27 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |