← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 35% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +5% |
| FC Arouca win | 31% | 29% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 76' | 🟥 | Artur Moreira · FC Arouca |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rafael Bracali · FC Arouca |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Nelsinho · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ronan · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 530.00 | 1625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.90 |
| elo | 1533.67 | 1546.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.05 | -15.88 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |