← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 46% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 25% | 25% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Wagner · CD Tondela |
| 30' | ⚽ | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 50' | 🟨 | Fernando Ferreira · CD Tondela |
| 54' | 🟨 | Víctor García · CD Nacional |
| 58' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Kaká · CD Nacional |
| 65' | ⚽ | César Martins · CD Nacional |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ali Ghazal · CD Nacional |
| 79' | 🟨 | Alassane Tambe · CD Tondela |
| 89' | ⚽ | Nelson Bonilla · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1532.00 | 376.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.73 |
| elo | 1482.67 | 1449.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.13 | -9.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.30 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |