← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 76% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.56 | fair |
| Feirense win | 7% | 11% | 14.25 | value: +55% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟥 | Icaro · Feirense |
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 25' | 🟨 | Alex Kakuba · Feirense |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 33' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 50' | ⚽ | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 66' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 285.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | — |
| elo | 1395.33 | 1818.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.66 | -4.02 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 1.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 61.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.44 | 0.85 |
| league points | 11.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.08 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 7.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.96 |
| state index | -1.17 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |