← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 40% | 38% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.18 | value: +9% |
| Maritimo win | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Belenenses |
| 28' | ⚽ | Gerso Fernandes · Belenenses |
| 33' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 36' | 🟨 | Éber Bessa · Maritimo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Fábio Sturgeon · Belenenses |
| 59' | 🟨 | Gerso Fernandes · Belenenses |
| 73' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Donald Djousse · Maritimo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 375.00 | 650.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | — |
| elo | 1507.49 | 1502.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.69 | 25.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 63.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |