← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 42% | 46% | 2.33 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.08 | fair |
| Boavista win | 26% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 18' | ⚽ | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 27' | ⚽ | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 37' | 🟨 | Tengarrinha · Boavista |
| 54' | 🟨 | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 54' | 🟥 | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 63' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Boavista |
| 76' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟨 | Barnes Osei · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4.00 | 1526.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.30 |
| elo | 1525.39 | 1486.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.40 | 24.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.75 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |